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Last year, the number of natural gas vehicles in China exceeded 1 million, and more than 3,000 natural gas refueling stations have been built. The vehicle production plants are launched at a rate of about 100,000 vehicles per year. Industry experts predict that by 2015, China's natural gas vehicles will have more than 1.5 million vehicles, which will have the potential to become the world's largest and most promising natural gas vehicle market.
According to Brenda Smith, a member of the Asia Pacific Natural Gas Vehicle Association, who has participated in the drafting of an international natural gas vehicle standard, the total global oil reserves are decreasing and natural gas is increasing every day. Natural gas vehicles develop rapidly due to their characteristics of being cheap, safe, and easy to transport. At present, the global total is about 16 million vehicles, of which Asia is the fastest growing region, accounting for more than 60% of the share. “The world is entering the era of natural gas vehicles, and in this process, China is at the forefrontâ€.
"Because of the economic and environmental advantages of natural gas vehicles, China's natural gas vehicles will exhibit explosive growth in the next few years," said Long Zezhi, professor of petroleum and natural gas engineering and senior engineer.
In the past ten years, the average annual growth rate of natural gas vehicles in the world has exceeded 25%, and the natural gas vehicle ownership in China has been forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 10-15%. In 2015, it will reach 1.5 million-1.8 million vehicles. Among them, road transport vehicles accounted for about half of the total number of taxis in operating vehicles, followed by buses and intercity passenger and cargo vehicles, which will reach 400,000-500,000 vehicles, 100,000-150,000 vehicles, and 150,000-200,000 vehicles respectively. Vehicle. Non-operating vehicles are mainly private passenger vehicles, followed by some agencies and sanitation vehicles.
The industry’s optimism about natural gas vehicles stems from the growing “environment†of China’s natural gas supply and transportation. In recent years, the energy cooperation between China and the five countries in Central Asia has been very fruitful. Two weeks ago, the opening ceremony of the West-East Gas Pipeline was held in Beijing. After this energy artery was put into production, it will be used in conjunction with the Second West-East Gas Pipeline and the first line. The natural gas and coal gas resources in the Asian region and western China will reach a total of approximately 77 billion cubic meters of gas annually for the three pipelines. PetroChina also revealed that the fourth and fifth lines of the West-East Gas Transmission have been planned.
The Chinese government’s encouragement policy for natural gas vehicles has also increased the confidence of the industry. In June and August of this year, China successively promulgated the "12th Five-Year Plan for Energy-saving and Emission-reduction" in the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan", both of which explicitly encourage the substitution of natural gas for fuel oil and vigorously develop natural gas vehicles. A few days ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued incentives for technological innovation in the new energy automotive industry.
Yao Mingde, honorary president of the China Road Transport Association, believes that ensuring energy security, protecting the air environment and reducing fuel costs are powerful motive forces for the promotion and application of natural gas vehicles in China. Compared with other alternative fuels, natural gas has superior performance and mature technology. “China has already It has formed a complete industrial chain of compressed natural gas, storage and transportation, natural gas vehicles and parts manufacturing."
The momentum of China's natural gas vehicle market has attracted the attention of large international automobile manufacturers. Toyota's senior researcher Chawujing Taidian of Toyota's R&D center (China) Co., Ltd. stated that Japanese auto companies have targeted compressed natural gas buses and trucks, natural gas-modified vehicles, and electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles.
Participants considered that China's natural gas vehicles also face some risks. Long Zezhi pointed out that the current promotion of LNG downstream business in China is still not strong enough. Intensified competition in the industry has caused the company's gross profit margin to decline and purchase costs to increase. In addition, the competition from hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles and other new power vehicles cannot be underestimated.
Yao Mingde said that China's natural gas filling stations have yet to form a network. The land resources needed to build the stations are becoming increasingly scarce. The relevant standards still need to be improved. More importantly, the prices of vehicle fuel gas continue to rise in recent years, and the Chinese natural gas price reform node is approaching. All these make the development of natural gas vehicles still have suspense.