At the recent 2016 China Automotive Forum, the world automobile organization Mr.Yves van der Straaten is very optimistic about the Chinese auto market. He believes that the Chinese auto market is already large and will be even bigger. China may become a benchmark for the development of new energy vehicles in the world. .
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What is the development trend of the world automobile industry in the next few years? What impact does the current global economic situation have on the future of the automotive industry? From your point of view, how do you view the wave of electrification and intelligent reform of the global automotive industry?
Mr.Yves van der Straaten: When it comes to the trend of the world's automotive industry, I think this demand will continue to grow. The demand for automobiles is closely related to life in the economic, social and social fields. We cannot separate it. The proportion of the world is 180 cars in a thousand people. One out of two people in developed countries around the world, even more in the United States, more than 600 out of a thousand people in the United States have cars. In order to meet people's social and economic needs, we still have to use cars to meet their needs. In particular, private cars are also a very important part of public transportation, sharing or sharing transportation.
This is a very interesting question. I also see that the link between GDP growth and car sales is very relevant. In the economic development, the economic growth of car sales has also increased, and vice versa, so this is a strong correlation.
Speaking of the wave, in fact, the word wave is still very short-term, I think it should be a more long-term trend. Electric vehicles are not only pure electric vehicles, but also hybrid vehicles, LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), and compressed natural gas. These are all developed through new technologies and are a very interesting process.
What are we looking at the definition of interconnectivity? There are services, such as services that can be carried out over the Internet in a car, or where the cars communicate with each other, such as where there is ice and where there is traffic jam, but these require infrastructure, but in this area technology It is a very challenging question. And there are standards for communication, and the infrastructure is not yet established in the world, so it needs to be built from scratch, so this is a long-term process.
You mentioned a lot of technical path choices, such as pure electric vehicles, such as hydrogen fuel electric vehicles, which kind of path do you prefer?
Mr.Yves van der Straaten: I am not really in a position to choose a technology. Each technology has its advantages, depending on where you use it and how it reflects consumer and social needs. When we talk about batteries, there is no need for batteries. The use of hydrogen in the car does not require batteries, but these require infrastructure, and the infrastructure is to refuel and recharge. Every technology is actually facing challenges. I mentioned different new technologies including LPG, compressed natural gas, hydrogen, etc., but I have forgotten to mention another kind of bio-converted into liquid fuel, which is still in the laboratory stage, so I hope that in the future two Thirty years have a new type of technology to complement the tradition.
Just now, the relationship between GDP and automobiles is mentioned. China is now developing its economy, the automobile industry is also undergoing transformation, and what impact will China's automobile industry have on the world's automobile industry? What kind of development is there in the world, especially in terms of new energy vehicles? Please expect it.
Mr.Yves van der Straaten: China has become the locomotive of automobile production and sales in the world. The market is very large. Such a huge change in two or three years is definitely a big influence and attracts various automobile manufacturers. With the participation, the Chinese auto market is already big and will be bigger. This is a very interesting phenomenon.
When it comes to new energy vehicles, I think China can be said to be a laboratory for new technologies, infrastructure and new technologies for charging. Unlike traditional technological development, it is a step-by-step development. This is a leap-forward development. The Chinese government and industry will also jointly develop some new plans to stimulate the development of new energy. I think China may become a benchmark for new energy vehicles.
As for when to achieve this goal, depending on the speed, a large number of new energy vehicles enter the market, I have not seen the new sales figures, China has achieved a considerable amount of sales through slow development in this regard. Now is the battery's cruising range, and the charging speed has changed in the past few years, but it is not enough for consumers to overcome the fear of battery power, so to improve the battery's cruising range, there are facilities for charging everywhere. There is also charging speed. If 8 hours is enough, it is inconvenient for long distance. Whether it is the United States, Germany or China, whoever implements it first will complete this goal.
Both Google and Baidu are preparing for unmanned driving. How long can you commercialize without driving and intelligent?
Mr.Yves van der Straaten: This depends on the development of automation. Nowadays, some of the driverless cars actually have interaction between the driver and the car. One is the legal framework, the social policy, and the traffic rules. On the public side, there are already technologies on some roads when traffic jams occur. When it comes to driverless vehicles, there are now Google cars. In fact, I don't like this title. In fact, the driver is still licensed, just saying that the complete driverless is actually in the laboratory stage. If the system is fully prepared on the highway, it has been introduced, and this will be very fast. And completely unmanned, such as the driver can lie there, this is going to the road, if all goes well, of course, I am not technically considered, because the technology is almost ready. If all goes well, I think it should be ready in 5 to 10 years.
It's completely unmanned, like lying on a lounge chair. It takes 20 to 30 years for the car to arrive in the city. Of course, I can't give precise numbers. It depends on the development of technology. There is a lot to do. For example, the technology stipulates insurance, transportation, traffic rules, and product liability. How to divide the responsibility for accidents is also a problem that needs to be solved.
What role does e-commerce play in the development of the world's auto industry, and what is the future development trend?
Mr.Yves van der Straaten: Now people buy cars on the Internet. They look at the specifications of cars first, and the choice of cars on the Internet has become more and more frequent. They can configure their cars on the Internet to see what kind of configuration, what kind of car, color, transmission, engine, and their own configuration, this situation is getting more and more. I don't know the situation in China, people can choose a car online. There are other people like car shows who can watch cars online, and dealers can touch cars in the exhibition room. In fact, this way is different from watching online. Because car purchase is a very strong taste and emotion, need to touch, need to feel, need to smell it, or a different experience.
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