Electric bicycles: Lithium will create billions of markets

New energy vehicles are the future direction of development, and there will be explosive growth in demand for lithium batteries. However, due to technical and price constraints, its industrialization time is not yet clear. At the same time, the market has paid less attention to the demand for lithium batteries for electric bicycles. According to the estimated energy demand of each electric vehicle 20KWh and electric bicycle 0.36KWh, the demand for lithium in an electric vehicle is 56 times that of the latter. However, the number of electric bicycles in China has reached 135 million, and lithium-ion bicycles only account for 0.32%. In 2010, sales of lithium-ion bicycles reached 402,000, with an average annual compound growth rate of over 60%. Lead-acid battery rectification, electric bicycle industry standard restrictions, and the continued decline in the price of lithium batteries are accelerating the arrival of lithium-electric bicycle era.

Lead-acid electric bicycles suffered from winter. China is a big country in bicycles. In 2006, there were 460 million bicycles and 81.59 million bicycles in 2010, ranking first in the world. Among them, electric bicycles have grown in a crazy situation for more than a decade. In 2010, it has accounted for 36.2% of the annual production of bicycles, and the total number of bicycles reached 130 million. In order to meet the needs of users, the performance of electric bicycles has also become increasingly blurred. The safety issues such as overweight, speeding, and violations of motor vehicle lanes have become increasingly prominent. This was once called the grey area of ​​supervision. In 2011, electric bicycles suddenly met two major dilemmas - the ministries and commissions jointly rectified electric bicycles, eliminated the production capacity of lead-acid batteries that did not meet the standards, and in recent years ran counter to industry standards in the motorcycle industry, with restrictions on 20Km/h hourly speed and 40Kg vehicle weight. Make the industry space squeezed. Lead-acid electric bicycle companies have a fragile ability to withstand policy risks and there is a high risk of bankruptcy.

In the first year of Lithium-ionization, or based on various factors, the rapid development of electric bicycles in China for more than a decade, along with policy deficiencies, vicious competition, lack of innovation, etc., transformation and upgrading has become the top priority for the development of electric bicycle industry. One big problem with electric bicycles is the industry standard that is far more than 40 kilograms. There are two ways to reduce weight: one is to use lithium batteries instead of lead-acid batteries, and the other is to use a new material body. Obviously, the use of lithium batteries is the simplest and has the least impact on cost.

Lithium-powered bicycles have significant advantages in weight reduction compared to lead-acid vehicles. At present, the lead-acid battery has a weight-to-energy ratio of only 30-40 Wh/Kg and a volumetric energy ratio of 64-72 Wh/L. In order to make the electric bicycle have a certain mileage, the lead-acid battery has to reach 15 Kg, which is very heavy and large. Therefore, it is inconvenient in the use process. Once an unexpected situation occurs, the inertia is too large and accidents are likely to occur. Therefore, some cities have issued orders prohibiting electric bikes from passing through the urban areas like the Ban Ma. Lead-acid batteries provide less electric energy, and also have the disadvantages of deep discharge capability and poor low-temperature discharge capability (in cold regions, they can only ride for 9 months a year), and have fewer cycles and short service life, and are used as power supplies for electric bicycles. Only use 1-2 years.

Spinel LiMn2O4 raw material resources, raw material costs and production costs are very low, the price of lithium in the cathode material system is the lowest, the discharge platform is higher, the single cell volumetric energy ratio up to 350Wh / L. A bicycle power battery weighs about 4Kg, weight and volume less than 1/3 of lead-acid. Lithium manganate battery cells in China can be recycled more than 600 times and used in electric vehicles for up to 3-4 years. Although the price is higher than lead-acid batteries, the cost of long-term dilution is the same as that of lead-acid batteries.

In response to policy rectification and market demand, in 2011, Emma, ​​Xinri, Yadi, Luyuan and other first-line brands of electric bicycles began to join the production force of lithium-ion bicycles and launched their own lithium products.

We believe that the advantages of lithium-powered bicycles will be fully reflected. Lightweight and compact lithium bicycles will be recognized by more consumers in the context of eliminating “exceeding” electric vehicles nationwide. In the premise of fully meeting the national standards, the lithium battery bicycle market will surely get further growth.

Lithium electric bicycle market share, although only 1.36%, but has gradually entered the homes of ordinary people. Of course, this can not be separated from its own advantages, with its long life, the use of safety, can be used with, small size, light weight, green and many other favorable factors. With the increase of market share, technological advancement and reduction of production costs, the overall price of lithium batteries in 2007-2011 showed a downward trend. China is a major producer of lithium batteries, with advantages in labor costs and economies of scale, and the price of lithium batteries will continue to decline.

In 2012, electric bicycles will open the "first year of lithium-ionization." At present, among the electric bicycle products that are produced and sold in China each year, more than several hundred thousand vehicles have been powered by lithium batteries. In 2006, the production and sales volume of domestic lithium-ion bicycles was approximately 40,000, and in 2010 it reached 120,000. As an international major market, the European electric bicycle market has entered a period of rapid development. In 2009, the EU’s total sales volume exceeded 600,000 vehicles, mainly lithium-ion battery electric bicycles, providing good market opportunities for high-performance green batteries.

Due to the particularity of foreign demand for electric bicycle products, lithium bicycles are more popular in the international market than in the domestic market. Among the electric bike manufacturers, LiBahuang, Xinri, Luyuan, Jieaobi, Toul, Sidson, Giant, and Baodao have all been specializing in the production of lithium-powered bicycles, and are focusing on developing overseas lithium-ion batteries. This part of the company's lithium-ion bicycle products account for a significant proportion of exports in the international market. At the same time, domestic lithium-ion bicycles have grown from 10,000 in 2006 to 282,000 in 2010, and their growth rate has been faster. We expect that the domestic lithium battery electric bicycle market will enter a period of rapid growth since 2012.

Investment grasps the three main lines The current domestic lithium-electric bicycles account for only 0.32% of the electric bike's penetration rate. In 2010, of the 402,000 lithium-ion bicycles sold, 282,000 were exported. Combined with the current low occupancy rate, we calculated that the output value of the lithium-electric bicycle industry in 2013 will reach 10 billion yuan, and lithium-powered bicycles are on the eve of an industrial outbreak.

The electric bicycle lithium industry sector pattern has taken shape. In 2010, the China National Light Industry Council and the Bicycle Association jointly identified ten major electric bicycle companies, which accounted for 39.48% of the total industrial output value of the electric bicycle industry that year. After years of development, China's lithium power industry has formed several major sectors including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong. In these major regions, many lithium battery manufacturing companies and lithium bicycle manufacturers are concentrated. The situation of several major plates in the production and sales of electric bicycle lithium batteries is that the Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou regions occupy 45% of the market, Zhejiang Yongkang 20%, Shanghai 15%, Tianjin 15%, and Shenzhen 5%.

The Jiangsu plate is characterized by the development and design of lithium battery products, especially in Suzhou, Kunshan and other places. There are numerous foreign-funded enterprises. These enterprises have introduced advanced foreign research and development technologies and become their most prominent advantages. The Jiangsu plate mainly distributes companies such as Jie Aobi and Xingheng. The Tianjin plate has always been at the forefront of the electric vehicle industry because it has been a gathering place for bicycle companies. Therefore, the Tianjin plate has the possibility of development for the lithium-electricity industry with manufacturing advantages. The Tianjin plate mainly distributes companies such as Koster and Beauty Line. Based on the most advanced electronic technology base in Shenzhen, the Guangdong section brought together a large number of companies including R&D and production capabilities. This has laid the foundation for the development of the lithium power industry in the Guangdong plate sector. The Guangdong plate is mainly distributed by Sidson, Advanced Energy, Perseverance energy companies.

In the 2012 lithium battery electric bicycle industry is about to usher in the flashpoint, investing in lithium battery bicycles mainly grasps three main lines: First, lithium battery manufacturers are relatively easy to intervene and take control of leading companies; Second, resource pulling effect is obvious, focusing on lithium resources and manganese resource companies; Third, lead-acid batteries are being transformed into lithium-ion companies.

Risk Warning: The supervision of electric bicycles has been relaxed and industry standards have been relaxed; lead-acid battery prices have fallen significantly; lithium-electric bicycles have been less than expected.