Pure electric passenger car qualification door will restart the new car forces to fight and then upgrade

Recently, the "Regulations on the Investment Management of the Automotive Industry (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)" has been like a shotgun, rekindling the hopes of those nascent new carmakers, but after careful rethinking, the door to the qualification of pure electric passenger car production will be reopened. New car-building forces will set off a bloody storm.

Only 6 of the 15 car companies have half of the companies in the sale of "qualifications" are incomplete

Before introducing the "Explanatory Draft", first look at the 15 companies that have been certified by the National Development and Reform Commission before. The 15 companies are: Beijing New Energy, Changjiang Automobile, Future Automobile, Chery New Energy, Jiangsu Minan Electric Vehicle, Wanxiang Group, Jiangling New Energy, Jinkang New Energy, Guoneng New Energy, Yundu New Energy, Lanzhou Zhiying. Bean, Henan Sudar, Zhejiang Hezhong, Lu local boat, Jianghuai Volkswagen.

From the perspective of production capacity, the total capacity of the 15 companies currently totaled 910,000 units, with an average capacity of 60,000 vehicles; from the base distribution, they are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong; project progress, 15 Only seven companies have been audited by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the same time. Only six companies actually sell cars, and half of them are incomplete. These companies are currently at the stage of preparation for listing new vehicles.

It is not difficult to see that just the accreditation of the above 15 companies has undergone a lot of trials, and the mass production process has been long, not to mention the new carmakers who are still outside the “authentication gate” and face a higher level of “advice”. The request will experience a more intense and brutal fight, and the restart of the qualification door will also create a new butterfly effect.

Promote the transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry into a key development direction of new energy

In addition to releasing the signal that will restart the qualification gate of pure electric passenger vehicles, the “Annex Draft” also shows that China will focus on optimizing the production capacity structure of automobiles, encourage high-end production capacity, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and develop into an internationally competitive one. Industry, guide and encourage companies to cultivate and develop new energy sources.

In terms of new energy sources, restrictions on purchases and restrictions have become an important driver for stimulating private consumption. Therefore, the total consumption of new energy passenger vehicles in the north of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other cities is the highest in the country; passenger vehicles (buses), as a government-led project, are relatively structured. Stability is mainly determined by the needs of public transportation in the region; logistics vehicles (special vehicles) are concentrated in road rights and cities where the logistics economy is open, and Shenzhen, in particular, ranks first in the nation for three consecutive years.

New energy vehicles not only influence the consumption structure by policies, but also influence the selection of production bases and capacity planning. In the "opinion", the company has drawn a circle for the production capacity of the new pure electric vehicle project.

The chapter “Electric Power Vehicle Investment Project” in the “Explanatory Draft” starts with the project area, corporate legal person, and project requirements. It refines the access requirements, raises the barriers to entry, guides corporate investment direction, and regulates investment behavior. In fact, this will not only constrain the new forces of automakers and investors; at the same time, local governments will more rationally exert their geographical advantages and develop new energy industries.

First of all, the mere annual production of 100,000 cars for purely electric passenger cars will block out a large number of new forces. For example, the 15 companies mentioned above will basically be kept out of the door if they meet the production requirements set forth in the “opinion”. However, it is worthwhile to examine whether it is possible to improve the production structure after raising the production threshold.

According to statistics, from 2015 to the end of June 2017, more than 200 new energy vehicle projects have been completed in China, and more than 20 million new energy vehicle capacity plans have been made public by various car companies. This is the “energy saving and new energy vehicle. The industrial development plan (2012-2020) set 10 times the target, and the overcapacity has begun to take shape. However, some people believe that on the one hand, actual production is at a certain time in the future, and the discussion of production capacity at the current stage should be based on the current reality; on the other hand, most enterprises will also make optimization adjustments based on their own development situation. It is possible that the capacity will be significantly higher or lower than expected. Therefore, we can't judge whether there is excess risk at this stage by simply superimposing the company's future capacity planning.

The electric vehicle resource network believes that instead of focusing on production capacity, it is better to focus on products, market reputation and services, and more rationally view the level of development of new energy vehicles, the proportion of car piles, consumption structure, consumer awareness, and breakthrough technologies.

Of course, the capacity will undoubtedly also filter out a large number of new forces. The requirement on corporate legal persons, such as the condition that shareholders will not withdraw their share capital before the completion of the project and the output reaches the scale of construction, will make capital more rational and will squeeze out A large number of investment bubbles and the breakdown of each PPT car maker will prompt the new energy auto industry to embark on a more rational development path.

Judging from the location of the project area, the automobile industry city will usher in a wave of new energy investment boom. It is understood that in view of geographical composition, at present, China’s automobile industry has formed six industrial clusters including the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Hubei, Chengdu, and Chengdu, etc., as well as Changzhutan and Guizhong. , Henan, China has a professional division of labor, industrial clusters have reached a certain level. According to the national new energy automobile industry development guidance, combined with the level of regional industrial development, the level of development of the new energy industry in the six major industrial clusters will also continue to increase.

After several fights will kill the auto industry leader

Not only has the threshold for newly-built pure electric vehicle projects significantly increased, but it has not been an easy task for traditional car companies to expand the production capacity of pure electric vehicles. It is required that both the annual automobile production capacity utilization rate of the company is higher than the average level of the entire industry, and the energy consumption and endurance of the products to be produced will be required. Mileage and other indicators have reached the domestic advanced level. The concept of the advanced energy level of new energy vehicles is rather vague. At this stage or mainly referring to the technical conditions in the subsidy policy, the capacity utilization rate can be monitored and counted.

According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the utilization rate of China's auto manufacturing industry in 2017 was 82.2%. Judging from the company's production capacity data, in 2017 there were 12 independent companies whose capacity utilization rate was more than 80% of the reasonable capacity utilization rate, and other companies were all lower than the average capacity utilization rate.

Image Source: Network

It is understood that in the current domestic or well-known car companies, BAIC, SAIC, GAC, Geely, Jianghuai, Jiangling, Chang'an, Dongfeng, BYD, Lifan, Southeast Automotive, etc. in the field of new energy vehicles are also considered Feng Shui and large Some of them have confirmed that the new energy and intelligent network will be the key development direction in the future. According to the above figure, a small number of companies with outstanding strengths and achieved the requirements of the “Reviews” can expand their high-end production capacity according to their actual development needs and provide the market with more high-quality, cost-effective products. Most car companies have to adopt policies to promote It is unlikely that new energy will transform itself into a breakthrough.

It is obvious to those who are leaders in the traditional automotive industry that when the subsidy for new energy vehicles is completely withdrawn, the entire industry will only leave behind few strong players after several rounds of fighting.